29. juli 2012 arkiv

BEST: 1½ °C stigning i globale landtemperaturer siden 1750

29. juli 2012

I går aftes tikkede følgende pressemeddelelse ind fra Berkelys BEST-projekt:

“Berkeley Earth has just released new results, showing that the average temperature of the Earth’s land has risen by 1.5°C over the past 250 years. The good match between the new temperature record and historical carbon dioxide records suggests that the most straightforward explanation for this warming is human greenhouse gas emissions.

The new analysis from Berkeley Earth goes all the way back to 1753, about 100 years earlier than previous groups’ analysis.  The limited land coverage prior to 1850 results in larger uncertainties in the behavior of the record; despite these, the behavior is significant. Sudden drops in the early temperature record (1750 to 1850) correspond to known volcanic events.

In its 2007 report the IPCC concluded only that “most” of the warming of the past 50 years could be attributed to humans. It was possible, according to the IPCC, that increased solar activity could have contributed to warming prior to 1956.  Berkeley Earth analyzed about 5 times more station records than were used in previous analyses, and this expanded data base along with its new statistical approach allowed Berkeley Earth to go about 100 years farther back in time than previous studies.  By doing so, the Berkeley Earth team was able to conclude that over 250 years, the contribution of solar activity to global warming is negligible.”

Når dette er et interessant resultat, er det ikke så meget fordi BEST-projektet afdækker noget nyt, som fordi det er defineret og gennemført under ledelse af Richard A. Muller, som har været erklæret skeptiker, for at vise, at klimavidenskaben var galt afmarcheret i sit helt grundlæggende talmateriale, nemlig målingerne af temperaturen ved jordens overflade.

En af BEST-projektets sponsorer er således Koch Industries, som er en af de store bidragydere til den organiserede tvivlsproduktion gennem enheder som heartland Institute. Men Muller har samtidig med den nuværende fremlæggelse talt om a “full turnaround” og har måttet sige, at BEST-projektets resultater i det store hele underbygger de modeller for den globale temperaturstigning, som lå bag IPCCs store rapport fra 2007, og som har været voldsomt kritiseret.

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